PHARR, Texas - Policy and government affairs leader Duncan Wood says there is little reason to expect Mexico and Canada to forge stronger economic and political ties during the USMCA review process.
In an op-ed for El Universal, the founder and principal of Hurst International Consulting says he expects the United States to once again attempt to play Ottawa and Mexico City off one another and that the political incentives in both capitals will once again point toward accommodation rather than alignment.
The headline of the column was: Mirada global: T-MEC, ¿en agonía? Or, Global perspective: USMCA, in agony?
Wood provided an English version of his analysis on LinkedIn. He wrote:
“Both Ottawa and Mexico City regularly describe the other as a ‘strategic partner,’ yet these declarations have rarely come with any real strategic substance. Their bilateral relationship has been marked by cordial diplomacy, periodic enthusiasm for cooperation, and almost no follow-through.”
Wood pointed out that policymakers and analysts have long floated the idea that Canada and Mexico might one day band together to counterbalance U.S. power at the negotiating table.
“In theory, it makes perfect sense: two middle powers with deeply integrated economies, shared interests, and a common exposure to U.S. political turbulence. In practice, it has never happened—and the upcoming USMCA review is unlikely to be any different.”
Wood said the instinct of Mexico and Canada to prioritize the bilateral relationship with Washington over any deeper partnership with each other has proven remarkably durable.
“When U.S. interests loom large, Canada and Mexico reliably revert to a familiar pattern: look to Washington first, and to each other only when convenient.” He recalled what happened during the 2017–2018 USMCA negotiations.
“The first Trump administration skillfully divided and conquered,’ negotiating separately with Mexico and then Canada before reconvening the three parties for the final agreement,” Wood wrote.
“Faced with intense pressure and credible threats, neither country saw value in coordinating a united front. Protecting access to the U.S. market was—and remains—the overriding national priority. There is no reason to expect the 2026 review to unfold differently.”
Wood concluded: “Despite years of rhetoric about North American cooperation, the Canada-Mexico relationship still lacks the institutional strength, trust, and shared strategy necessary to resist U.S. pressure. The result is predictable: Washington will lead, and its partners will follow—separately.”
I build bridges—between ideas, people, and countries. For more than 20 years I’ve worked to connect governments, companies, and global institutions on the big issues shaping our future: energy, supply chains, and international cooperation.
Today I lead Hurst International Consulting LLC, advising clients on navigating critical minerals, energy transition, and global policy challenges. I’m also proud to serve as Global Ambassador at the University of Leicester’s Institute for Policy and as a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Futures Councils, where I help shape global debates on supply chains and the energy transition.
My path has taken me from classrooms at ITAM in Mexico City to leadership roles at the Wilson Center and Pacific Council on International Policy. Along the way I’ve published widely, advised governments and businesses, and built partnerships that span borders.
At the core, I believe collaboration is the only way to meet the challenges of this century—and I dedicate my work to making those connections real.
