By Mike Willis
Unfortunately, the Texas Workforce Commission is unable to provide their September Labor Market reports due to the government shutdown.
Much of the data that is used for earnings, employment/unemployment, job growth, etc. is gathered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is not at work currently.
They did call some staff back solely to put together the September CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation report in order for the Social Security Administration to calculate the annual SSA Cost-of-Living increase for the program,
I do track some non-governmental data regularly so I will share the CPI info and some information from other sources that I have seen, and
I will recap some of the year-to-date trends for 2025 vs 2024 for you below:
- CPI Inflation Report for Sept 2025:
- “Headline” CPI was 0.3% for the month, and 3.0% for previous 12 month period.
- The Dec. 2024 Headline CPI was 2.7% for the previous 12-month period, so this measure is trending slightly higher in 2025.
- “Core” CPI (excluding food & energy costs) was 0.2% for the month, and 3.0% for the previous 12-month period.
- The Dec. 2024 Core CPI was 3.0% for the previous 12-month period, so this measure is basically unchanged in 2025.
- My thought is that we are not yet seeing the cost of tariffs having a noticeable impact on the inflation reports.
- Most of what I have seen and read in Q2 & Q3 company financial reports and other analysis shows that most of our US companies are still absorbing the majority of the tariff costs - Many are spending hundreds of millions of $$ per quarter on tariffs.
- Many companies are preferring to wait until they see how the court decisions and the ongoing negotiations and decisions about our policies towards each country settles out, rather than hiking prices and either alienating customers or having to roll back pricing if some tariffs are reduced or eliminated later.
- ADP Private-Sector Payrolls Job Growth Report
- The ADP monthly reporting for 2025 shows an average of 63,400 new jobs created per month in 2025 as of Oct 31.
- This compares to the average monthly job growth in all of 2024 of 159,000 jobs/month.
- This report is not always well-aligned with the BLS monthly employment reports as it is more volatile on a monthly basis, but it is generally fairly close when you look at the full year.
- It appears to me that this data is clearly showing a significant deceleration of private-sector job growth in 2025, which supports the concern that we are seeing the economy showing some signs of weakening.
- This private-sector only-report also tracks average wage increase for both “job stayers” and “job changers” every month. It shows an average wage increase rate of 4.5% for the previous 12 months, and 6.7% for those who changed jobs.
- The “Jobs Report” from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was showing an annual wage rate increase of 3.7% as of their last report in August (before the Gov’t. shutdown). It has been slowly decreasing from a high of 4.1% in 2024.
- I have been advising HR managers who have asked me to use something around 4% as an average labor cost increase rate for budgeting purposes, depending on how competitive your company wants to be.
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
- This survey has been done monthly for years to gauge how consumers feel about the economy and expectations for future inflation.
- Their measure of overall consumer sentiment index average is 58.7 for 2025 (Jan thru Oct). Their reading for the month of October was 53.6, the second-lowest sentiment reading during 2025.
- This index started at 71.7 in January, and has declined significantly overall over the past 10-month period.
- Their “Current Economic Conditions” index has declined from a high of 75.1 in January to 58.6 in their October survey results. It averages 63.7 for 2025 thru October.
I am not sure at this point if previous months’ reports will be calculated and provided once the government reopens, or if they will just pick things up for the current cycle at the time.
Editor's Note: The above commentary was penned by Mike Willis, executive director of South Texas Manufacturers Association. It first appeared a monthly e-newsletter Willis sends to STMA members. It appears in the RGG Business Journal with the permission of the author.
