Ecuador, a northwestern country in South America, is less than half the size of Texas (with 283 561 square kilometers) and a population of 17 million. There was a time when the country was considered peaceful, as opposed to its violent and conflicting neighbors, but today Ecuador faces the spread of transnational organized crime gangs fighting between them within the territory. This combines with corrupted and inefficient authorities. The responsibility of the deterioration of security and living conditions of the population, lies too on the austerity policies of Ecuador governments since this has weakened State and institutional capabilities, which explains how internal security and the rule of law have almost disappeared.
Last year, just 11 days before the presidential elections, Fernando Villavicencio, one of eight candidates, was murdered. Despite his chances of winning were small, he was very critical of Rafael Correa, former president from 2007 and 2017 and his role in domestic politics, including his protégé, Luisa González, who was the front runner according to surveys. Correa is a very influential character in the politics of Ecuador. Villavicencio denounced corruption, and the close links of the police and the military with organized crime. After his murder it has been widely believed it was the Mexican Sinaloa or the Jalisco New Generation -or both- cartels the brains behind the action perpetrated by Colombian hitmen. Both cartels dispute preeminence in Ecuador as a haven for drug trafficking.
The winner of the elections in 2023 was a young businessman and former parliamentarian, Daniel Noboa, succeeding another businessman, the conservative Guillermo Lasso. At the time of his inauguration, Noboa was 35 years old. He seems to add to a series of conservative governments starting in 2017 that have not been able to ameliorate the economic performance, neither the well-being of the population in Ecuador. Lenin Moreno’s term (2017-2021) who was ice president during Correa’s tenure, distanced himself from the policies of his predecessor. He reversed many of the social and economic policies endorsed by Correa such as subsidies to various goods and services and favored privatization.
He reduced ministries and diminished the budget for security. Thus, insecurity increased at the streets and prisons, where several massacres occurred when he was in power. Since he was serving as President during the COVID-19 pandemic, lacking medical infrastructure led to a dramatic increase in fatalities and in cities like Guayaquil it was common to find corpses of the victims of the disease at the streets, since it was not possible for the authorities to cope with high rates of contagion and death. The distribution of vaccines was highly criticized, since the Health Minister used them for his own family’s benefit. In the meantime, gangs and drug traffickers found themselves with an increasing room of maneuver and became very strong at prisons. Mexican and Colombian cartels became more prominent.
Guillermo Lasso’s term (May 2021-November 2023) was marked by corruption and nepotism, the assassination of hospital directors and escalating violence in the country. Lasso also approved the carrying of weapons by civilians in public places to face to organized crime. This decision was made by Lasso alone, without any consultation with the population or the legislative branch. Additionally, Lasso proposed a Constitutional reform for which a referendum was carried out on February 5, 2023 in conjunction with the local elections. His reform plan was defeated and then another crisis erupted when the National Assembly charged him with corruption making possible an impeachment against him. Then Lasso used a existing provision that permits the dissolution of the National Assembly and the calling for elections, so that he skipped impeachment. Yet, the elections of last years were intended to have a successor of Lasso for an 18-month period. This is the timeline for the inexperience Daniel Noboa, who seems already surpassed by organized crime.
Ecuador is located in a very strategic geographical position for cartel’s activities, since its territory is a hub for trading drugs to Asia and Europe. Besides that, the influence of the United States in the country has been challenged by China that has invested in the oil industry and has been key in providing financial relief to the country. Even though the Government of Jamil Mahuad (1998-2002) dollarized the economy to control rampant inflation -something suggested as a solution to inflation in Argentina by his new president Javier Milei - the economy has lost resilience capabilities. This is why Correa was very popular, because even though he did not reverse dollarization, he subsidized the economy and blame the bad performance of Ecuador on the Washington Consensus and neoliberalism. In fact, the economy performed better and people living in poverty diminished during Correa’s times.
In 2009 Correa closed the Manta military base loaned to the United States on sovereign grounds. He argued it was necessary to expel the US from Ecuador’s territory and later put pressure on the US Government to reduce its military and security personal at the Embassy in Quito. The fact that the military base of Manta was closed is considered as an element that explains the increasing insecurity crisis in Ecuador. Manta was very important to fight drug traffickers in the Andean Region, but with the Americans out of the picture drug cartels found the territory as a fantastic opportunity for their operations.
As suggested, today’s crisis in Ecuador has a long story. It is not something that erupted some days ago. It is the result of bad governance, transnational organized crime activities, the deterioration of living conditions within the country, the increase of poverty and corruption from the authorities. It is also sad to witness the way in which Mexican cartels’ influence has grown to the point they have control over the prisons, the police, politicians, and most of Ecuador. Of course, it is not only Mexican mafias, since a report by the European Union found that criminal organizations from as far as Albania have built alliances with local gangs in Ecuador.
It is true, however, that every crisis comes with opportunities. President Noboa has given the US a wink since clearly, he needs help to cope with this crisis. The US, on its part, has expressed it is willing to help Ecuador at this critical juncture. But not for free. During Correa’s times, relations with China dramatically increased. At that time Ecuador’s exports to China grew 20-fold. Also, Ecuador became the third largest recipient of Chinese policy bank loans in Latin America, behind only Venezuela and Brazil. Thus, Quito became more autonomous from the US by relying more on loan and financial relations with China. Yet, during Lenin Moreno’s presidency the ties with China weakened in the fields of technology investment and lending due to some scandals due to corruption activities and pressures from Chinese diplomats. Guillermo Lasso reversed the downsizing of the relationship and there was a lot of talk about a free trade agreement with Beijing. The US, concerned about relations of Ecuador with China restarted its cooperation with Quito on several fronts including security, environmental initiatives, and trade. Yet corruption of the authorities in Ecuador has again limited an advancement of the relationship.
In any case, most important in calling the US for help is the way president Noboa has named the events of these past days. On Tuesday January 9, the president declared the state of emergency including a curfew all over the country from 11 to 5 am for the next 60 days. The decree signed by Noboa on that day indicated the country was in an “internal armed conflict” and ordered armed forces to carry out military operations to “neutralize” armed groups identified as terrorists. The fact the criminals and gangs are labelled as “terrorists” is something to keep in mind. In the United States several legislators and Governors insist on characterizing Mexican drug cartels and organized crime groups as terrorists, since this label implies the US could face them directly as part of its war against global terrorism. This is why the events in Ecuador matter. Could be expected a massive irruption of US security forces to fight terrorism in Ecuador? How relevant is Ecuador to the US? Because other regions seem to be more important, like Ukraine and/or the Middle East. Last January 11, for example, despite the ongoing crisis in Ecuador, the US and its allies struck Houthis in Yemen, a movement most possibly explained as a way to deter Iranian influence within the area. Thus, once again, Latin America does not seem to be as important as the Middle East. But hey, this is an electoral year at the US and probably the Biden administration does not need another participation in a complex conflict. That said, it is about time Latin America reaches consensus on coping with organized crime beyond words since the situation in Ecuador could quickly replicate in other parts of the region.
Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by María Cristina Rosas, a professor and researcher at the Faculty of Political and Social Sciences of the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City. The column appears in The Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Rosas can be reached via email at: mcrosas@prodigy.net.mx
